Monday, January 28, 2013

Half Time Report

SPY is lower thus far after a small pop at the open was faded and then it went dip-buy-flag-higher-flag-higher-dip-higher- and now falling after failing at the highs of the day.  We will see if dip buyers appear again and send this to the highs or if we break down past all of the higher lows put in previously.

BIDU we got invovled in today as it ripped at the open with massive call buying in this weeks 115 calls.  Now important to note as all these calls are being bought the stock is ripping now you can chase here or wait for a retrace.  I will always wait for the retrace and if it keeps going then it goes without me.

So now we have options we can write a 120 call against ours and cut our cost basis in half or we can create a call fly selling 100 120 calls and buying 50 125 calls and put our cost basis down to .10.  Which would give us 50-1 risk reward ratio.  For now we are standing pat.

GS failing at this 145 level where big calls were bought early in the morning but we waited for it to retrace create a bottom and then get invovled.

So our options right now are to stand pat and see if we can take out that 145 level later in the day currently 150's are trading for about .20 so we could lower our cost basis by about 40% but for now we will look for a better spot.

AAPL dropped out of the gate and then exploded so we took the small retrace to get invovled.

So we have a lot of options here including selling the 460-465 call spread to create a fly and guarantee ourselves a .20 gain or go further out and keep some risk but have higher probability of picking a range.  Will wait for tomorrow and see where OI sits in many numbers.

YHOO saw early call buying this morning into earnings and we entered.  Here we are benefiting from a lot more call buying following us and IV is spiking.

Right now can sell two times as many 21.50 creating a ratio call spread and have a free trade into earnings, but with IV spiking I am going to wait until the end of the day adn see if we can run into the close and create a play then.


NVDA from yesterdays blog seeing follow through call action and stock it up.
PCLN giving back a lot of fridays candle needs to show some strength here today losing half that candle or more would not be a good sign, especially with Nasdaq up and overall market down small.

 Sold rest of XLV & 1/4 VOD will update those later in post.

Good Luck!

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