Wednesday, January 23, 2013

1.23 some ideas for tomorrow & taking shots not working

Markets again moved higher today after a choppy start and there was an interesting post on stock twits today where the guy sentiment trader said this is only the third time in SPY history that SPY closed above its open for 10 straight days.  Pretty amazing and goes well with the buy the dip scenario.  So the long awaited AAPL is out with earnings and it does not look good with a slight miss on revs a beat on EPS Iphone sales meet expectations and AAPL guided next quarter revs below estimates, which is normal for AAPL, but as the guy on Bloomberg said "people are now starting to believe the guidance".  NFLX with a quick 40% squeeze.  I did try to play NFLX earnings but I guess luckily did not get a fill.  Enough damage has been done with earnings plays this week with AAPL, GOOG & IBM giving back about 25% of last weeks gains.  The real damage is probably AAPL but I took a shot and the trade still goes to March but I think I will take the loss tomorrow as I think after this AAPL will no longer be the great trading vehicle it once was and I think it will be a lot of chopping around until there is a another catalyst.  Took about a 5K loss in GOOG & IBM today and looking at like a 10K hit in AAPL tomorrow.  On to some more favorable trading scenarios enough with earnings plays for now...

Taking shots occasionally is something I will always do especially after good weeks, but unfortunately I struck out 0-3 on shot taking this week, and will now hold off for a bit on any more.

YPF a name that has a lot of negatives as far as indicators are concerned, but today saw traders step in April and July 17.50 calls for 1300 & 2100 respectively.  So something to watch for as it tried to break out today but got rejected hard and now needs that 16 break and hold.

A name with a lot of bullishness in OI and starting to look a bit better today saw 3300 may 22.50 calls purchased.   A name to watch if it picks up some momentum and begins breaking out.


SWY broke out big today and retraced a bit and is one I will look to get involved in tomorrow depending on how well the market can hold up.  As today saw massive calling buying across many strikes all on the call side feb 19 1600, feb 20s 4700, March 20 7000, Mar 21 19K, March 22 3K.  I will be looking to get involved in the Mar 21 calls.

APC a name i highlighted yesterday I believe has broken out and is now starting to consolidate and will be one to watch as another bullish spread is traded today with the Aug 85-100 call spread trading 7000 times adding to an already extreme bullishness in options.

GES  a name putting in a series of lower highs and lower lows and in a severe downtrend, but a trader stepped in today calling a bottom and bought 3300 Mar 26.80 calls.  Not a name I am really interested in as it looks awful.

Another name in a massive downtrend and has a lot of bearish positioning and today saw add ons to that with feb 11 puts 1700 trading and feb 9 puts trading 5000, earnings on the 31st.

MDT  a name that broke out early this week and is looking for more as traders have been buying calls all week and today saw 2100 Feb 45, 5000 mar 49 calls.  One that I will look to enter in the coming days or weeks depending on how the market handles the AAPL miss.


Have to cut this short as I got caught up in the AAPL movie, but PFE RDC & HII are also worth looking at.  Also, TLM saw more call buyer today and I am continuing to hold.

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