Saturday, December 5, 2015

Week Ahead Thoughts & Set-Ups

I was away last week but it appears to have been a lot of violent moves in both directions, resulting in a pretty much unch market.  Above on SPY is 210 and 211 as the big keys with that 211.50 area the largest area to clear for new highs with a measured move target to 215 and above that 220.  Support is 209 and 208, which I would want to see hold in order to maintain Friday's momentum.  If I had to make a call here, I would go with a higher tape into year end with that 220 not out of the question. 

 Looks ready to go as well with 115.30 and 115.50 the big areas for a potential move to 120 with support at 114/113.50.  Much like SPY you have the big volume reversals friday with MACD curling for a bullish cross and RSI has room to run.
 The most compelling bull thesis is here to me, and I want to see 24.90/25 break with an initial measured move to 26.  Same deal large reversal with MACD curling.
 The one laggard would be here in the IWM as it continue to tread water and remains under too many moving averages, but if you had followed this "divergence over the past 2 years you are most likely buried in shorts.  I am not too concerned with IWM, sure, I'd like to see it moving aggressively higher but I could make a case that within this channel it is making higher lows and higher highs.  Support 166.30 and 115 will be the big ones above is 118.50 and the big one I would like to see break is 120 for a initial move to 123.
AAPL strong move on watch red to green and/or 119.25 break stop below 119 on the 119.25 break r/g would be intraday level.  Target 120/120.65 and then can really be off and running to 123.So risking .25 for potential 1.50-4 its a favorable scenario.  

Swing stop would be either 118 or 117, with same targets but adding a gap fill at 127.50.

EPS 1/25  Shorts 1.5%.
 ATVI straight forward day trade 39 break stop 38.89 target 40.

No interest in swinging this type of set-up but 37.80 would be the stop with targets 40/41.50.  A close above 40 I'd probably have 1/4th left from day trade to keep for a gap up the next day though.
 Just a straight red to green play.
 A somewhat interesting bottom here needs 96 break can stop 95 or 94 with targets of 98/100/102.

EPS 2/9 Short 1.5%
 Top side break 53.45 stop 53.30 or 52.50 depending on time frame. target 54/56.

EPS 2/2 Short 1.5%.
 63 break off the bottom stop 62.70 with a target of 65. Again a favorable scenario.
 126 break stop 125.75ish target 128.

Swing 126 break stop 125 or 124 target 128/130/131/135

EPS 2/2 Short 11.5%.
 FIT red to green play should get 34.50 above that is 37. stop 33

Short 50%? not sure if accurate.
 GOOG 768.50/770 area could get aggressive higher 2 point stop 776/780 targets.
 JNJ 103 break target 105, stop 102.

EPS 1/18
 68 break stop 67.90 target 69/70

Swing stop 67 with targets 69/70/72.50/75

EPS 1/14 Short irrelevant.
 NFLX 131 break intraday stop target 132/133 and up.
 This gets interesting above 561.25 can also try red to green needs a $3 stop target 570/590/600
 SBUX 61.87 break target 63/64/68 stop day trade is 61.75ish swing is 60.60.
 Cash flow short 24.90 break .10 stop target 24.30.

 Strong within a group that could run 59 break target 62 stop 58.
 25% short 26.45 break could run it again stop 26.25 target 27/28/30.


Good Luck!