Monday, January 14, 2013

1/14/13 Wrap

The market remained choppy and SPY closed off .09 after a sweep of buyer came in at the close.  AAPL off 19 GOOG off 17 but the market does not care as rotation continues and individual names continue to move whether the market does or not.  DELL RIMM HPQ rallied the market and tried to send it green probably not many more times that you will hear that in out life times.

Damage was done in GOOG today as it loses the uptrend from mid november in addition to its 10-day moving average after an initial spike up to Friday's highs.  The 20 day now sits at 721.46 about a point away from closing and below that is a small gap to fill.  One possibility tomorrow is a quick dip below the 20 day possibly fill the gap and head higher, but it is on the riskier side of plays to make.

RSI fell sharply and will now look to hold the 50 level, MACD is nearing a bearish cross so it will be interesting to see what happens, but there are many other names to trade.

IBM continues to tread water and while the DELL news was favorable to MSFT, INTC and some other older tech stocks IBM could not catch a bid.  Earnings are next week, but through today's lows I like a position in the weekly 190 puts, which are currently trading around .40.

SBUX early strength was met with sellers and closed near the lows and has had a battle witht he 10-day which seems to be lost also multiple stabs at the 20-day have been bought but this next try looks like it could break.  A massive amount 25K feb. 55 puts were opened today against 1700 open interest so a fairly large bearish bet.  Earnings due out next week and a lot of eyes will be on China growth where others have struggled such as YUM.

Similar story in DNKN where it lost its 10-day and will look to test the 20-day with RSI rolling over coming out of oversold conditions and MACD looking to make a bearish cross.  A similar pattern to the one in late October.

VMW has been putting in solid work with a surge in buying coming in today and closing on the highs. RSI is revving up for a move higher while MACD has put in a bullish cross and accum/distribution is showing strong buyers of stock.  Options are beginning to see sizable open interest growing in the February.  Certainly a name to watch through 97.31ish.

CRM continues to show strength in all markets and can be bought through today's highs.

VOD has not traded well since breaking out, but should be playable off the 10-day.  Notable buying in the April 27,28&29 calls for the past week and open interest has swelled.  Certainly a value name and options are fairly cheap going out to April one to keep an eye on off the 10 day or through the 200 day.

MPEL continues to be bullish and a 19.50 break should be on watch.  Options traders have been all over this name for months and are showing no signs of slowing down with April 20,21 & 22's all active today.


SODA could be a name to watch tomorrow through today's highs there was some speculative call buying in the name today for this weeks 50's.

RVBD certainly not a 5 star set-up but held the 20-day and failed to break out past the 10 day could be good for a trade over the 10 day.  Call buyers were active for over 5000 Feb 22's, which includes earnings on 2/7.


CBS weekly is looking very strong while the daily is a little sloppy, but sizable positioning in February took place today and is interesting.  That big 37K of 40 calls is worth noting and possibly entering with a 39 break or more aggressive is with a break back through the 10 day on the daily around 38.41 with a stop below the 20 day at 37.50ish.


VFC a bit of a thinner name with a very strong move today and going out on the highs reclaiming the 50day a break tomorrow of 154.16 looks good and could send it to 160 & then 168.  Call buyer stepped in with 1,000 Feb. 150's now trading around $7.20.  $700K position... one to watch.

Other names I like SINA, BIDU, CSCO, NFLX, MGM, WYNN PCLN, EXPE.  KORS also saw bullish positioning today continue with buyer active in the Jan.  55 calls.

FAS continues to be bought on any dips and continues to look strong into a slew of bank earnings.

JPM earnings not a large trade was put on today with what appeared to be about 12,000 jan/feb 46 call calender spread at around .50.  Not a trade i like as it does not offer anything to the upside immediately but the trader must be looking for a small pull back after earnings followed by the next leg up.  The problem is if JPM does move up through earnings the trader is left with a losing position in the Jan calls and is now left with a large and more risky position in Feb.  I would prefer a 46.50/47 call spread at about .20 if looking for this type of strategy.


C & GS did not see any unusual positioning into earnings but will check tomorrow as well.

Bazooka Ben is curently speaking and we shall see if he spooks the markets.

LULU call buyers today will not wake up happy tomorrow, but could be a playable name in the A.M.


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