Test

SPY showed early strength before getting rejected on the broken uptrend line and falling back in a fairly orderly manner, before panic erupted and high volume selling ensued for the last 30 minutes, while the VIX put in a 33% day.  Interesting action and could set us up for a test of the 50 day as early as tomorrow morning, and a nice panic open with an overshoot of the 50 day could set up a nice tradable bounce.  

Tomorrow's Economic Data:
9:00 a.m. Case Shiller Index for December- Market Expected 6.5%
10:00 a.m. New Home Sales For January- Market Expects 383,000
10:00 a.m. Consumer Confidence For February- Market Expects 62.0

Options Angles-

NSC shares have recovered well from an earnings miss, and looked poised to break out this morning, but turned lower with the market and put in a bearish engulfing candle with a break and close below the 10 day.  Traders were active today in June 72.50 calls for 1,000 & 2,100 June 75 calls as open interest continues to build in the name.

Company Specific Dates: Earnings 4/24/13

Not looking to step into a longer dates long position at this point, but worth watching for a bounce off of the 20 day or through last weeks highs.

DG shares have broken the small downtrend on the daily, and on a longer time frame are bumping up against the downtrend on the weekly, with MACD looking for a bullish cross, shares set up pretty well here through 47.24, and will look to test the 50 day on the weekly at 48.47 and the 200 day on the daily at 49.72.  Traders were active today for more than 10,000 April $46 calls, which last traded at 1.91.  Certainly a notable position with open interest in the strike only at 40 and no other significant builds in the month.  

Company Specific Dates: Earnings Around 3/18/13

If the market can in fact bounce of the 50 day and begin to build higher, this is a position I am interested in, and would like to see some additional build in the name.  

Trade I would look to enter: March 48/April 46 calendar call spread at $1.55.

VOD shares continue to tread water, but options traders continue to position themselves bullishly on the name, and the one thought that continues to remain is some news in regards to VZ.  Shares are currently attempting to hold last May's lows and have a lot of gaps to fill above if shares can begin to rebound.  Certainly technically there is not much to like here, but today saw traders step in for 30,000 July 29 calls, which trade around .20.  Add to that significant open interest builds in calls in April and July and you have a bullish case despite shares looking weak technically.

Company Specific Events: 5/21/13 Earnings, 7/19/13 Management Statement For Quarter Ended June 2013, 7/23/13 Annual General meeting.

Certainly at .20 and $4 out of the money it is an extremely speculative play, and not one of interest to me, but I do have interest in the name going forward as I have seen weeks of accumulation and have traded the flow well, but I am waiting to see some commitment in the name before getting interested in some nearer strikes such as the July 26 or 27 calls.

FTNT sets up well here and tried to break out, but ultimately succumbed to the markets weakness and retraced right back above the 10 day.  The name continues to hold the earnings gap well, and certainly does look like a prime candidate to move higher on market strength.  Today saw some buying across varying strikes in March, but could be closing action and will wait for tomorrow to check OI, but also saw 2,000 April 26 calls trade and 2600 June 25 calls trade.

FTNT is more of a name I would rather play the break out for a day trade, and potentially swing a few pieces of the trade on watch for the 24.50 break.

No upcoming company specific events of note.

NTAP shares have been breaking down and have sliced through the 10,20 & now 50 day moving averages as well as the uptrend and now look destined for a test of the 200 day at 32.35 and with the way it has been trading look set to move below and test 31.50 area before making its way down to the gap in the 30 to 27.50 area.  Today saw a lot of activity with June puts including 3,000 33 puts (could be closing, will check OI tomorrow) & a massive June 30-25 put spread trade 10,000 times.

Company Specific Events: 3/12/13 Piper Jaffray Conference, 3/13/13 Pacific Crest Conference, 4/2-4/4/13 Wells Fargo Tech Summit & Earnings 5/22/13

It is an interesting play with a lot of catalysts in between and shares do look lower, but it is a longer term position, but an April 30-28 put spread at around .30 sets up well here on continued weakness through the 200 day.

GM shares have rolled over as of late and are currently trending lower into last Decembers Einhorn gap, and today saw traders step in with a bullish position of 6,500 April 30 calls & Sept saw action in 29 calls for 3,000 & 30 calls for 4,000.

Company Specific Events: 3/1/13 U.S. Vehicle Sales Conference Call, Earnings 4/29/13.

It is an interesting name, which does seem to be executing well, but I am not interested in bottom picking it here, and will wait for strength and additional positioning, but one could take a starter position in April 27 calls on a gap fill completion and roll up to a full position through 28.19, but it is a more aggressive play.

WMT shares are attempting to break out of a series of lower highs, and have once again held support and are moving higher after an earnings, which may have not been great but worse case scenario fears after the e-mail debacle were not met either.  Today saw 2,500 May 75 calls bought at around .35, with 2,000 already in open interest in the 77.50 strike.

Company Specific Events: Earnings 5/16/13

This is a play I like as these plays on lower beta names can result in massive percentage gains, and I will look to follow in the foot steps and take a position in the May 75 calls through 71.70.

Technical Set-Ups
AXP shares attempted to break out today, but were rejected and retraced with the market weakness and are now sitting on the 10 day, with the 20 day catching up.  This is still a name I like and one I will look to for the 63 break on market strength.

MCD showed strength today despite and extremely weak market, and that is worth noting the chart sets up well here with RSI ripping higher, but nearing overbought conditions and MACD looking to make a bullish cross.  I like this one through today's highs in the 96.78 area.

CCL has broken down hard for the past 10 days, and has sliced through the 200 day and longer term trend support, and looks like a short through 34 or on a bounce up to the 200 day.

 ACT shares have lost the 10, 20 & 50 days and today attempted to reclaim the 10 day but got rejected hard and closed near the lows of the day.  It appears set for a battle to hold support, which coincides with a gap fill below.  Looks like a short through the 200 day.

 FLDM broke out of a bull flag on a 1.8% down day in the markets so always worth taking note of and I like this one long through today's highs around 17.10 and then sets up for a nice move through 17.25.  RSI is moving higher and with a reading of 64 still has more gas in the tank for a nice move higher.  Stop below the 16.69 area or 16.38 to give it a bit more wiggle room if so desired.

 DXLG was able to remain green on the day, and continues to knock at resistance, and looks set to make the move through in the near future, I like it through 4.82 today's highs.

 DGX has not been able to find a bid since its large gap down, always a warning signal for lower prices, currently hanging onto to longer term support and looks like a good short through this 55.50 area could have 2 points in it.

 IPXL tried to break this small downtrend today, and failed, but did remain in the green for the day and is currently holding at last summers lows, but only so many times that it can try before it fails so one to watch for a short on market weakness.

 PWRD has pulled back in a fairly orderly fashion and was able to reclaim the 10 and 20 day moving averages in a tough tape with RSI moving higher and breaking through 50 got rejected on the trend line today, but looks good for a long through 12.22.

 PFSW in a rising channel and sets up really well here with RSI looking to break higher MACD crossing bullish and a big volume day today it looks nice through today's highs of $3.57.

 PNRA had some notable bearish options activity last week, but held in there rather well today certainly disappointing those put holders, but it is still on my radar for a trade on a break down of 152.50.

 WFM is approaching oversold and tried to bounce today before getting battered with the market, but shares do not look too good here and look good for a short tomorrow green to red.

Earnings

PCLN reports earnings 2/26 after the close and has beat each of the past 4 quarters, the street is looking for $6.54 eps.  PCLN has a 4 quarter average move of 9.5%, with a max move of 17.3% when it got roughed up for over 100 points.  Shares broke trend support and failed to rally on Friday as traders await this report options market is pricing in a roughly 7% move into the report.  It does seem fairly cheap in comparison to the norm, but with EXPE having a muted reaction it makes sense for these to be priced cheaper, not to mention the one outlier move of 17.3% skews the average move.

Trade Idea: 1) Iron Condor, March 1 720-730 call spread & March 1 630-620 put spread for a $4.20 credit.

                   2) Short March 1 720 calls Long March 16 730 calls & Short March 1 620 puts & Long March 16 610 puts for total debit of around $2.20.

                   3) Long March1/March16 730 call calendar spread @3.50 & Long March1/March 16 630 call calendar spread @ around $2.00.. Total debit $5.50.

FSLR reports 2/26 after the close and the street is looking for $1.76 EPS, and FSLR has beat 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average move of 11.875%, with a max move of 21%.  FSLR shares fell below its 10 day last week, but were ultimately able to reclaim it on Friday.  Options are pricing in about a 12% earnings move.  3 of the past 4 earnings reactions have been negative, and FSLR is always a name I favor a short strategy into earnings, but shares have performed well this year but also are probably slightly ahead of themselves.

Trade Idea: Long March 1 32-29 put spread @.95 & short the March 16 33-35 put spread for a .80 credit.  Net debit of .15.

Most Advanced:

EDAP .64 18.71%

CMGE .68 13.28%

AERL .39 11.02%

ENDP 2.22 7.92%

ZNGA .25 7.84%

Most Declined:

AFFY -14.08 -85.23%

PANL -4.21 12.85%

AVID -.68 -8.88%

JASO -.46 -8.85%

After Hours Advances:

MELI +2.44 2.89%

AMGN +2.45 2.74%

TIVO +.25 2.04%

PTEN +.40 1.77%

After Hours Decliners:

CZR -1.10 -9.39%

VVUS -.46 -3.71%

ADSK -.93 -2.54%

APOL -.38 -2.13%

BLMN -.30 -1.71%

Commodities:

Gold +13.80

Silver +.53

Platinum -.53

Copper +1.05

Crude -.02

Brent -.56

Nat Gas +.12