Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Few Quick Ideas.

SPY ripped higher in the first 30 minutes of trade and faded pretty quickly before chopping around taking another leg lower and spiking into the close.  Moral of the story is another day of rather choppy action with volume really drying up between 12 and 2 tough trading within that time frame.

Worth noting here is the massive accumulation in open interest int he 152 strike, and it is a lot for the market to work through, going to take roll ups to happen, which could be worth a look in the morning as 150K 152 calls traded today so will be worth a look to see if that is closing out.  Otherwise I would say we will be right around this level on Friday, and to be safer I would say 151-153 is an expected range for this market this week.  To take advantage of this one might consider an iron condor Selling 153 calls, buying 154 calls, selling 151 puts & buying 150 puts for a net credit around .16 the risk reward isnt favorable but the probabilities of success are high.  Probably not the best of strategies to enter on a Thursday but success is likely for this trade if that 300K OI remains in the 152 calls tomorrow.

BIDU broke down early before rebounding off of the lows and then chopping around for the rest of the day.  Looks like a good day trade here for tomorrow through todays lows or if it opens green then watch for it to begin moving down or red.

EMC with large call buying today in the Feb 24.50 calls also in March with 2000 25 calls and OI is building in march calls as of late.  The Feb. calls could have just been a cheap play on a good CSCO report and probably not the best name to correlate with CSCO.  The March calls, well, they have been building up but the chart has just put in a lower high and shares rolled over today and I see no reason to be involved here.

GMCR saw about 4,000 March 45 calls bought this morning and really got shares moving, but the chart here isnt really impressive to me and while it could be a name to play through the 10 day its not something I want to get invovled in with calls trading around 2.00.  If you wanted a cheap play to play a run back to 50 the March 48-50 call spread trades at about .35 not a bad way to be invovled in the name if interested.

DNKN has been stalled out since earnings and today tested its 10 day and bounced nicely.  A trader stepped in and bought 8,000 march 35 calls, which trade around .40.  Also, of note was SBUX had a pretty rough day today and didnt trade well, so there could be a trade here on a break of the 10 day.  The 35's are about 7% out of the money so certainly speculative and one might consider the 37.50 as a way to play or a 37.50-35-32.50 put fly at around .50 offering 5 to risk reward, but harder to profit from quick sharp declines.

IP saw a lot of call buying today and has been this way for a week now today saw 20,000 July 45/50 call spreads trade at around .80 with 35,000 having already traded earlier in the week.  Signifigant positions in a name that has worked off over bought.  i have had success in the past following the flow in this name and it is interesting here, but too far out for me to join on that play the March 42 calls could be playable around .80 on a push back through the 10 day tomorrow.  Certainly a name to keep on the radar.

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