Monday NewsLetter

Anguilla AKA Paradise

Overview & SPY Trades

So today we had a pretty big gap up to begin the day with, your truly came in flat except for the FXI call spread, which was not a huge deal obviously I would have loved to have my entire account long but that did not happen.  As I have been stating in this letter the target was 170 and then a test of the highs so both completed in one big Summer swoop.  So is that it? No, I do not believe so I expect these highs to be in the rear view mirror this year, but at this point its a tad more uncertain and the market could use a healthy break let the 10 day catch up a bit build a nice flag and then go.  This way you have a solid base to trade from and you get a gap and go instead of a gap and fade.  I am not too in love with many set-ups long or short tomorrow and the good thing is I will be in NYC all day and will not participate in the market.  Lets get Down to business.

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Some SPY trades: 15,000 Sept 30th 158 puts, Oct 160/155 put spreads 7,500.  Net Delta -$5,9mm.  Of course a big hedging vehicle so I dont make too much of it.

Technical Set-Ups

ACN a name that held its gap very well today and closed near the highs set up fairly well here and has potential to fill the rest of the gap above.  So the break is 76.62 but right above that is the 100 day so does not give much room a possible play is buy half through 76.62 and then add the last half through the 100 day or just wait for the 100 day break around 77.

 AIZ not a huge mover but sets up well here if volume can come in and a nice break of 56.12-56.21 area.  Needs volume though.

 ARG had a pretty swingy day today but sets up pretty well here on that 106-106.14 break.

 Another gap and hold above 100 day so really have to take note of the committment here 50.40 break should move this.

 BRCM is really interesting here there has been a bunch of positive comments on it and saw some bullish options positioning weeks ago I think there is a swing opportunity in the name through 27.24 although to really get this moving it needs a break and close above 28 area to get that gap in play.

 DD straight forward needs that 60 break.

 FRX some activist invovlement and I really like set ups that have multiple resistance converging as they tend to really explode.  So here we have highs resistance plus previous broken trend support so worth a look on that 45 break.

 HRS 58.72 break worth a look needs some volume expansion though too.

 IR momentum play 64.90-65 break.

 MET building a nice little flag here above supply 10 day crossing all moving averages RSI a lot of room to run keep an eye on that 49.78-50 break. Should at least get the highs after the 50 break.

 OI 31 break targets about 34.

 OSK pretty tight here 47.58 break today's highs could set up for a trade.

 SWI also with a lot of gap to fill above gets interesting through 40 should at least test the 100 day at 41.14.

On to the good stuff...

Options Flow

RSH recapitilization plans pleased investors and got this running a bit today saw a trader roll up 9,500 Jan 4 calls to 9,500 Jan 5.50 calls.

My Take: Personally I see no value in RSH longer term and I also like to see on these roll ups traders take some or all of the profits and add more size to the trade but there could be some trades in it along the way.

IBM waking up a bit as of late and making a move into supply, and stalled totally fine.  Today a trader bought some more time rolling out 1500 September 195 calls to 1,500 Oct. 200 calls.  (This also could be a call calendar spread, but have to check OI and I would guess its a roll up)

My take:  196-197 break is going to be big here so I have an alert set noting the action and IBM certainly a swing name so the Oct. 200's can work well.  Pull up the weekly too and you'll see the 196 area.

APC noted some bullish spreads over the weekend today saw a trader early in the day roll out 5,700 Oct 92.50 calls to Oct 95 calls staying bullish but lowering Delta and taking 1.30 off the table.

My Take:  Same alerts set from over the weekend will continue to monitor the action.

C been treading water a bit and needs to get through that 51.50-52 area before anything.  Today saw traders buy 5,000 Jan 50 calls, 3,000 Oct 52.50 calls & a roll out of 4,000 Sept 50 calls to 4,000 Oct 50 calls.

My Take: Signifigant bullish positioning being seen in October, and the play gets EPS on the 15th.  Have some interest in the 52.50's setting an alert for 51.53 break with the action noted and will continue to monitor.

KO popped today but faded fast big Buffet name and today saw traders buy over 2,000 Oct 40 calls and 1,500 Sept 39 calls.  Also saw a trader book profits on 2,000 sept 45 puts and roll out to 2,000 Nov 41 puts.  So a mixed bag.

My Take: Not really interested in this action but 50 day break could get this going. But could be worth a look this week if it starts to show some strength as those Sept 39 calls are fairly cheap shots.

 OIS interesting here has come some ways to reach this point and could use some consolidation before its next leg up.  Today saw a traders buy a 2 1,000 blocks of Mar 2014 130 calls also some small buyers of Sept 105 calls taking a shot.

My Take:  A name I am going to keep an eye on and setting an alert for 103.50 & 104 spreads are wide here so its a name if using options would probably have to swing so I would probably trade shares here personally to keep liquidity.

IWM faded pretty hard today and almost went red at one point.  Trades today: Sept 30th 99/92 bull put spread for .14 credit or a roll down neither play makes any sense to me so 0 interest. Oct 103/97 put spread 8,300 a more reasonable play but more of a portfolio hedge and I am not seeking major short exposure.  Oct 106/105 strangle buyer 15,000 times definitely interesting one expeticng some big moves in the market spread traded for 3.85... I have certainly seen worse plays.

YHOO really battling this 30 level I have an alert set up there and am slightly bullish on the name long some in IRA some trades today.  Sellers of 11,500 Jan 25 puts (most likely closing action) Sept 30 calls 2,000- Oct 30 calls 2,000 Nov 28 calls 800-Oct 30 calls 1,000- Oct 27 puts 1,000.

My Take:  Some bullish action have my eyes on the 30 level, but want to see some committment some sideways action here to build a launching pad would be great, but worth keeping an eye on it for momentum with that Sept 30 call buyer in the area.

IGT nice pop today as traders look to ride the momentum but then expect negative EPS in November as they buy 10,000 Oct. 20 calls & sell 10,000 Jan 2014 23 calls for .55 debit.

My Take:  Interesting play there noting the action for earnings plays in November and watching for some consolidation and then next leg higher.

Other Action:

XLI- Strong pop today and held a lot of its gains late a lot of profit taking in Sept 47 calls today, but also a buyer of 1500 Sept 47 calls & a buyer of 5,000 Oct 47 calls.  For me I will focus more on individual names within the group, but setting an alert on XLI for 47 break noting the action.

COG- Buyers active in Oct 40 calls for about 1,500 there continues to see bullish action here but also seeing shares fall currently barely hanging on to 50 day.

CFN- 2.700 Oct 40 calls starting to look a lot better here setting an alert for 39.38 noting the action.

OMX- 1,000 block of Jan 12 calls.  Not something I am interested in but could break out above 11.80 area.

CRTX- BIOS not my thing but 1K Nov 10 calls 500 Oct 10 calls & 500 Feb 10 calls.

LTD- Small buyers in Oct 62.50 calls today about 500 or so, good value name alert set for 61 noting the action.

MT trader rolls out 4,000 Sept 13 calls to 4,000 Sept 14 calls worth eyeing has a couple interesting levels 14.32 & 15.

MAS- Noted earlier action today saw 3,800 Oct 22 calls

OPEN- trader roll up 5750 Oct 67.50 calls for nice profits and stays bullish buying oct 75 calls.

BAC- massive Nov 16/13 strangle 20,000 for .27.. Actually a very interesting play, I might nibble on a few.

Earnings Follow Up

DRI Sept 49 puts 1,760 & 500 Sept 50 calls.. Has no affect on trade as was positioning both sides.  Price may require adjustment though.. Still a few days away.

TIBX- Another another 1,500 Nov 20 puts at .30 & also an Oct. call spread have to check OI tomorrow to confirm action though.  Still like the low risk Nov 20 puts.

ORCL- 2,000 Oct. 33/35 call spreads & about 4,000 Sept 32 puts.  Still like same play.

FDX- Oct 100 puts closed out.. Have to confirm OI tomorrow... Still like same play adjusted for price movement.

ADBE- Nothing worth noting.

This is an example of a newsletter sent out daily if you'd like to be added to the mailing list email: keeblerelf0602@gmail.com.

This is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed in anyway as investment advice.