Trade Ideas For Week Of Feb 11.

Market Update & Outlook

SPY had another positive week as the rally continues, but this week did bring in some volatility and two pierces of the 10 day, but this market is extremely strong and was able to close right near the highs for the week.  

 60 Minute SPY view shows that we ended the week flagging as for most of Friday we were in a .20 range and it turned into a rather uneventful day, but important here is to notice the up trend line and how following that presented opportunities to buy the dip throughout the week.

QQQ started moving this week with the help of AAPL catching a bid off of some possibility of returning cash to shareholders.  QQQ was able to break out of its year long range and looks set to lead the market higher and test the highs around the 70 area.

 60 Minute shows a choppy tape in the QQQ, but a nice clean breakout on Friday and ended the day flagging will be looking for continuation come monday/

Economic Data Week Ahead

• Feb 12 2:00 p.m. Treasury Budget
• Feb 13 7:00 a.m. MBA Mortgage Index
• 8:30 a.m Retail Sales, ex-auto, ex ag, Import Prices
• 10:00 a.m Business Inventories
• 10:30 Crude Inventories
• Feb 14 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims & Continuing Claims
• 10:30 a.m. Nat Gas Inventories
• Feb 15 8:30 a.m. Empire Manufacturing
• 9:00 a.m. Net Long Term TIC flows
• 9:15 Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization
• 9:55 Michigan Setiment

Large Cap

CSCO looks great here on both the daily and weekly time frames and looks poised for a move higher into earnings & potentially after, earnings are on 2/13/13 and could certainly be playable into the report on a break through 21.26.  Options positioning remains bullish in CSCO and has two February strikes with over 100K of open interest.  Certainly a name to look to get invovled in Monday morning an dpossibly exit into earnings.

HD looks very nice here after a nice healthy orderly pull back Friday was a strong day closing at the highs.  I like this name here and it could be a good play out of this zone, there is currently large positions being held in March calls with 12,000 67.50 calls & 8,000 70 calls.

MNRO has been consolidating for a few weeks here and had a very strong day on Friday, and looks set to break out next week.  RSI is moving higher with room to run, MACD is set for a bullish cross and shares have been under accumulation throughout this period of consolidation.  The stock is on the thinner side only trading 313,000 shares a day and there is no options activity to speak of, but shares look set to break out and one to keep on the radar.

LUFK shares broke out last week and are now again flagging with a bullish engulfing day on friday shares look poised for a move higher early in the week.  Earnings are on 2/14/13 so something to keep in mind.  

SGEN shares are consolidating there recent break out well and now look poised to break out further to new 52 week highs, on watch for a break of 30.59.  Earnings are 2/13/13.

Small Cap 

Shares of STEC have been in a tight range for the entire year, but put in a strong day on Friday reclaiming many moving averages and looks set to break out of this range and finish filling the fap it is currently trading in.  RSI is breaking the median line looking for a move higher A bullish MACD cross seems imminent. One to watch for a nice volume break out.

RFMD after reporting better than expected earnings has broken out of a bull flag and is consolidating the move and after a strong day on Friday looks set to continue its run. Strong volume to end the week RSI moving higher and far from over bought MACD set to cross bullish and shares being accumulated.  On the weekly there is a possible cup and handle forming.

LPSN after a negative earnings reaction has been stuck in a tight range, and is currently tight in an ascending triangle and looking to break out.  Shares have been under accumulation the entire year MACD is bullish and RSI is starting to move.

 ACAS is flagging after its recent break out and shares have been orderly pulling back and after a strong Friday look set to break out to new 52 week highs.

 OMEX looks to be getting ready to break out into the gap after finally reclaiming and closing above the 200 day on friday RSI is getting ready for a move higher MACD looks set to cross bullishly and shares have been under accumulation the entire year.

 MENT is sitting in a nice bullish flag and is currently at the upper side where there is a lot of resistance a break out looks imminent through the 17.50 level.

 RMBS is flagging and looks poised for a move higher I like a buy through Fridays highs.

 Large Cap

 WDC shares are flagging and being accumulated, and I like taking a position through Fridays highs of 49.19, and evaluating how it handles 52 week highs of 49.50.

 CRZO shares have been range bound since late last year, but are now looking to make a move to test the 200 day at 23.78, I like it through 22.80 and making sales at 23.78, which would be the 200 day and also fill the small gap from November.

 WMGI shares look set to break out of this acsending triangle next week and are pushing up against it on Friday.  RSI are set for shares to move higher, Bullish MACD cross last week and shares being accumulated.  Looks good coming out of this area 22.25-22.59.

 DISH has been consolidating this entire year and has failed a few times at the 38 level, earnings are on 2/20/13 and there is a lot of bullish positioning in option for Feb., March & June.  Would like to see a 38 break in the early morning trading session to get involved.

 RRD shares broke their downtrend and are now consolidating the move, and have bounced off the upper side of this flag a few times last week and would be one to watch through Fridays highs for a break out of this flag.

 CELG looks great here as it worked off its extreme over bought, but shares have been under accumulation throughout this consolidation period and Friday traders were active in Feb. calls looking for this to break out this week.

 JMBA is interesting here as it is making its move towards resistance levels where it has failed before I like it for a trade through 2.75 area, or as a play through Fridays highs, which would be a bit more aggressive.

 INCY is interesting here after two rejections at the 200 day which coincided with the gap fill as will shares have retraced a bit on low volume, but closed above the 10 day on Friday and I like this one long through the 20 day for a move to the 200 day and a possible rip through the 200 day and into the gap.  Shares are being accumulated here and the pull back was orderly and on low volume, I would watch RSI to curl up and MACD to cross bullish, but I think there is a nice moving coming in this name.

Shares of FIRE are trying to stay in this descending triangle but have had a few runs out of it, in my opinion this is a good short through Fridays lows, but only for a scalp and not something I would be looking to swing as the Accum/Distribution is still at highs but currently curling downwards.

Options Corner

AVGO on the weekly shares have put in a series of lower highs and Friday saw 7,700 March 35 calls bought, signifigant sizing and earnings should be sometime before that expiration.  Certainly a sizeable position, but the chart is not that exciting and it is not something I am interested in here.

VMW with a massive earnings gap to fill and shares appear to be stabilizing friday saw noteable buying in Feb/March 77.50 calls & Feb 80 calls.  This is not a name I would want to front run here and would much rather wait for it to get into the gap and hold and then look to get involved, but defintiely one on my radar for a recovery in shares.

AVT came up on a 10x normal daily call volume screener and saw 1,000 Aug 34 calls trading $2 in the money a very bullish position and on the weekly shares look poised to break out to new 52 week highs.  August is longer than I want to be involved so not one I am interested in, but definitely one to watch for a break out.

Earnings
KO shares broke out last week following some very bullish call buys and are set to report earnings on 2/12/13.  Options are currently pricing in a 2.5% move or roughly .84 cents.  KO has beat estimates each of the past 4 quarters and has an average earnings move of 1.14% with the largest move being 2.07% in the 4/12 report.  So a current straddle appears expensive compared to recent moves.  But there has been some large bullish trades in the name recently Resistance coming in a 39.25 and in the 40 area, while havign support at 38, 37.82, 37.54, 37.35 & 36.80 area.  

With all the bullish positioning of late I like a 39.50/40 Feb/March call calendar spread for .05 net debit.  

In addition to my new algorithm service opening on Monday over at daytradingalgo.com, which by now I assume most have already signed up for their free two week trial, and if not you should go do so as the tool is amazing and is launching on Monday... Spaces are running out for the first trials!

I understand many do not have time to make their own watch lists or just like other ideas they have not thought of, and I am going to begin a newsletter service where I will send out a watch list each night with at least 10 ideas for the day ahead based on technicals, options flow & overall market conditions.  I will also include ideas for earnings play when there are interesting names.

So I will send out four of these letter each week on Monday, Tuesday, Wendesday & Thursaday after the close.  I will post an example of what it will look like one day during this current week.  In addition to all of those I will send out a weekend letter, which is going to look something like this post here.  A few differences will be: the options corner will be longer and include more ideas, and I will highlight many additional earnings names, but I just wanted to give a few small examples.  The letter will also go into more details on how to play multiple set ups in different ways from the 20-25 set ups I will post over the weekend letter.  I will include in every letter small caps, large caps, options flow ideas & earnings plays.  In addition I will highlight ecomic events for the week ahead.

There is some unorganization in this example, but the real letter will be organized by small caps, large caps etc... Also I will switch to a different backgroung on the charts and it will be easier to read.  

So the 4 daily letters and the one larger weekend letter per week, meaning 5 newsletters per week with many ideas coming from a variety of sources will be included in the subscription.

The service will be $44.99 per month.  I will cap the number of members at 100-150, and expect to begin March 2nd with the first weekend newsletter...

Please Email optionstrading101a@gmail.com  if interested and want to be added to the list of subscribers or have questions about the service, it will be first come first served and like I said I will cap it in the 100-150 range.

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Thanks,

Good Luck

Weeks Ending 2/8/13 Results!

This week I cannot say I posted everything 100% of the time as I was a bit busy getting our new project ready Day Trading Algo , which launches Monday.  I would say 90% of these trades were posted in real time on Twitter so lets jump right into the meat and potatoes of it.

BIDU we played the earnings, which I was not supposed to do but it worked out well and we had a a scalp or two in there as well.  Overall 13,800 cookies in BIDU this week.  Got the black eye to show for playing earnings again lol

AMZN we had the put fly and fortunately when it was in our favor we created the put fly and had limited risk and we still were able to squeeze out a small gain of 1,029 cookies.

NFLX we played it a lot in many different ways and we did well with it we could have done better but NFLX stalled at the end of the week, but stocks do not go straight up etc... And this is important as I did that disecting a NFLX trade and I will do a follow up on that over the weekend, but while others on twitter wer buying up the 190's and 200 calls we were selling them to them and allowing ourselves a chance to participate in the upside while limiting our participation to the down side.  Will go into details in the NFLX trade part 2.  Overall 28K cookies.

AAPL scalps all you can really do with AAPL lately because it cannot be trusted but firming up a bit and I will highlight the move I made on it later... Overall 3,465 cookies to the good.

 A basket of different trades C trade I totally messed up by not selling enough on the first spike.  GS we played fairly well I dont know not too sure I maximized the trade though there is three trades in GS from last week listed here, but we counted those in our last weeks so got to add those 400 in losses to our gains as we counted them already last week.  HLF worked out well was just following some sized orders a name I am not going to stick around with and just sold any spike took a bit overnight and sold the spike the following day.  IBM just took a bit off of the put spread book some gains.  LEA big bonus today with the filing.  9,519 cookies, which is probably higher as I think we counted a bunch of IBM losses last week, but it turned around some this week. Close enough..

GOOG we traded fairly well all week today with my runners I put it into a ratio spread, which not a huge fan of the play, which is easy to say now as the play didnt work out too well but overall some solid gains in GOOG this week of about 10,000 cookies.

CF I got faked out on this one thought it was about to break out and stuck with it too long.  Lost 3800 cookies.

Remainder of LEAwas good for another 3800 cookies.

 AAPL were taking a shot here and looking for that 500 pin next week where a big batch of puts are sitting.  Curently good for 6200 cookies.

 SLM took some of these today good for 1000 cookies thus far.

TGT was a disaster as got hit be a slew of upgrades and SSS were not a disaster surprisingly options players are still targeting in bearishly as they roll up there position we were down on this position last week, TLM continues to do well AIG & ALL hanging in there.  Going to call this batch -1000 cookies for the week as I dont really know where everything was but its close enough.

I am still holding IBM which recovered 1 or 2000 cookies from last week & HD which is basically right where it was last week, but not going to count them.  I think thats it.

For the week we were between +70,000 & 73,000 cookies.  A great week nothing to not like about it sure I made some mistakes and did some silly things but all in all good week.

The algorithm is ready on Monday, I think a few people snuck in today but the launch is and was supposed to be on Monday.  It is very exciting and I am happy to be able to share it with everyone and trade it with everyone as it is such an amazingly successfull strategy.  So come Monday I will be right there with you trading the algorithm.  Check out the website, get yourself the free trial and lets bake some cookies together.

http://daytradingalgo.com/a-trading-tool-like-no-other/